For independent shop owners, entrepreneurs and investors
Your next
coffee shop
starts here.
Know before you commit. Type the address you are considering. Tupll studies the neighborhood, grades the location from A to F and shows what drives the grade.
What you get
One grade,
and what drives it.
Tupll compares the neighborhood around your address with existing independent coffee shops in the same kind of place and gives you a Location Grade from A to F, the percentile behind it, and the Location Index underneath both. Then it shows what drives the grade, so you know what you are committing to.
Location grade, an example
Typical location
Location Grade C, typical location.54th percentile
Ranks higher than 54% of existing independent coffee shops in urban areas.
Location Index: 105
100 = typical. Higher = stronger.
That's useful to know before you commit. See what shapes this grade
The reading from our sample report. Your report shows the reading for your address.
| Grade | Meaning | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| A | Excellent | 80 and above |
| B | Strong | 60 to 79 |
| C | Typical | 40 to 59 |
| D | Below typical | 20 to 39 |
| F | Weak | Under 20 |
Each grade holds about one in five of the existing independent coffee shops in each area type. C is the middle of the range, not a failing mark.
The grade is built from what is around the address: who lives nearby, who works nearby by day, what else is open on the surrounding blocks, how the streets and buildings are arranged, and what the local market for your kind of shop already looks like.
Who it is for
Compared with
shops like yours.
Made for independent coffee shops. Built from about 5,800 independent coffee shops (single shops and small groups under five locations), in urban cores, suburbs, second cities and small towns. You are compared with independents like you, not with Starbucks-type chains.
For a first-time owner deciding whether to sign a lease, an owner adding a second or third location, or an investor or broker weighing a site.
How it compares
A different way to
evaluate a location.
The usual way
Look at the numbers one at a time:
- Traffic
- Income and population
- Nearby competition
- Rent and visibility
Then decide whether the neighborhood feels like a good fit.
The Tupll way
- Start with the address you are considering.
- Compare it with thousands of independent coffee shop locations.
- Look for neighborhoods with similar surrounding patterns.
- See where the location looks strong and where it looks weak.
The usual numbers still count. Several of them, such as who lives and works nearby and the shops already around you, are part of the comparison. Tupll weighs them together, so you do not have to interpret each one on its own.
Don’t just ask whether the neighborhood looks good. Ask how it compares with neighborhoods where independent coffee shops already operate.
What your grade means
Three readings,
one address.
Location Grade
The answer, in one letter: A Excellent, B Strong, C Typical, D Below typical or F Weak. C is a typical location, not a failing mark.
Percentile
The evidence behind the grade: the share of existing independent coffee shops the address ranks above, within its area type (Urban, Suburban, Second city, or Small town or rural). Tupll sets the type from the address.
Location Index
The measure underneath both. 100 is a typical independent coffee shop location in the same area type, and higher is stronger. It is a relative scale, not a percentage or a score out of 100.
What it measures
How well locations like this one tend to draw customers.
What it does not
It is not a sales forecast, and it does not grade your business.
Both outcomes are useful. Whatever the letter, the report shows what drives it.
- A or B. Confidence to move forward, and a clear view of what makes the location strong.
- C. A typical location. The report shows what shapes the grade and what to check on your visit.
- D or F. A reason to look harder before you commit, and the statistics pulling the grade down.
We report the grade the data gives, high or low.
What is at stake
What rides on
the location.
A lease, a build-out, equipment and staff commit years of money to one address. See how the cost of a report compares.
Money committed to this location
$275,000
Startup cost plus rent for the whole lease.
- The $139 report as a share of that
- 0.05%
- The report in days of rent
- about 1.7 days
The $139 report is a small cost next to the $275,000 you would commit to this location.
A high grade gives you confidence in that commitment. A low one is a reason to look harder before you make it. Either way, you know before you commit.
Reading it
How to use
the grade.
Compare your options
Choosing between several addresses? Compare grades first; within a grade, the higher Location Index is the stronger location. If they sit in different area types, your comparison file orders them for you.
Treat close scores as ties
Small differences between two addresses are not meaningful. Let your own situation break the tie.
Use it to rule places out
The model is more reliable at identifying locations to avoid than at promising which one will succeed. Give a low grade a hard look.
| Address | Grade | Location Index | Read it as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Site A | B, Strong | 118 | Better than a typical location. See what makes it strong |
| Site B | C, Typical | 101 | A typical location. Check what shapes the grade on your visit |
| Site C | D, Below typical | 74 | Worth understanding why before you commit |
With several addresses in one order, you also get a CSV that ranks them side by side, highest Location Index first. Grades here are illustrative.
What it measures
Tupll compares locations, not businesses.
It answers one question: if the same owner opened the same shop in each of these places, which place gives better odds?
It cannot see the things that are up to you or specific to the site. A great operator in an average location can outperform a weak operator in a great one. Use the grade to choose between locations and to spot problems early, alongside your own judgment and a visit to the site.
Not measured
- The quality of your product
- Your staff and service
- Your prices and hours
- The condition of the building
- Your rent
- Parking
- Signage
- How easy it is to pull in and out of the lot
The model
How we built
and tested it.
We started with about 8,500 coffee shops across dozens of metro areas, 5,800 of them independents, in every kind of place: urban cores, suburbs, second cities and small towns. For each one we measured the neighborhood at four distances, from a half mile out to ten miles, using public data: the census, federal employment records, road and land data, and an open map of businesses. Then we asked one question. Knowing only what is true about the area around a shop, and nothing about the shop itself, how well can we predict how much custom it attracts?
To be sure the answer holds on ground the model has never seen, we trained it on some regions and tested it on whole regions it had never seen. We discarded every training shop within ten miles of a test region, so the model could not simply remember the shop down the road. And we kept one final set of locations sealed until every decision was fixed. We predicted a score of 0.403 on that sealed set and scored 0.393.
What the test showed
- Locations this model puts in its top ten percent are about 1.9 times as likely to be genuinely top-tier locations as a location picked at random.
- Pick a location blind and roughly one in five is bottom-tier. Among the locations the model ranks highest, it is about one in fourteen.
- Comparing sites within one city, it is about two times better than chance.
What it does not mean
Those are statements about how often the model is right, not about how many customers a shop will get. No location is promised 1.9 times the trade of another.
The score depends on the neighborhood, not the market. Accuracy on whole regions the model had never seen was no lower than inside familiar ones, which is why Site Check works for any US address.
The report
The neighborhood behind the grade.
Built from public records, census, and mapping data, and prepared by Tupll for your address.
The sample report
Read a complete report for a real site in South Austin.
Every section, the maps, and the grade itself, as a buyer receives them in the PDF. Free, and no account needed.
See the sample reportIn every report
- The Location Grade for the address, from A to F, with its percentile and the Location Index behind it, compared within its area type
- The twelve neighborhood statistics that drive the grade, each with where it ranks among existing independent locations
- The area within a short drive of the address, set by area type (5 minutes urban, 8 suburban, 10 second city, 15 small town or rural), plus 1, 2 and 3 mile rings
- Who lives nearby: households, renters and owners, education, income
- Who works nearby by day
- How the area is changing: home purchases, building permits, population
- The competitors already there, by name, distance, and chain or independent
- Five neighborhoods to reach first when you open
- What the data cannot tell you, and a checklist for your site visit
Emailed to you as a PDF. Order several addresses and you also get a CSV comparing them.
Pricing
Report options.
A small cost to know what you are committing to, set against years of rent, build-out, equipment and staff.
Site report
$139
One address. A full neighborhood report built around your Location Grade: the percentile and Location Index behind it, the twelve statistics that drive it, the maps and the competitors, as a PDF emailed to you within three business days.
Several addresses at once
From $103
Comparing sites? Order up to 20 together. Every address gets the same report, plus a CSV that ranks them side by side.
| Addresses in one order | Each |
|---|---|
| 1 | $139 |
| 2 to 5 | $119 |
| 6 to 10 | $103 |
| 11 to 20 | $103 |
Guide to Marketing to Local Customers
+$175
per address
- Who lives and works in your drive area, and the neighborhoods to reach first, with a map and a list
- Nearby anchors such as schools, offices, gyms and colleges, and competitors with distances
- Three to five tactics picked from your area's own data
- The basics every new shop needs, and a first 90 days plan
Add it now, or after you see your grade, from the link in your delivery email.
Our guarantee
We stand behind the data.
- Delivered on time or your money back.
- If we cannot score your address, full refund.
- If a fact in the report is wrong, we fix it or refund it.
No account required. Tupll prepares each report after the order is placed. Volume prices apply when the addresses are in the same order. Sales tax is added where it applies.
Not ready to order? See a sample report, free and without an account, or .
Your order
Request your report.
Tell us where you are looking. We confirm the address and send your delivery date and a secure payment link.
Before you order
Questions.
Who is this for?
Made for independent coffee shops. Built from about 5,800 independent coffee shops (single shops and small groups under five locations), in urban cores, suburbs, second cities and small towns. You are compared with independents like you, not with Starbucks-type chains.
What will I receive, and when?
A PDF report for your address, emailed to you within three business days of payment. It has the Location Grade, the percentile and Location Index behind it, the area type, the twelve neighborhood statistics that drive the grade, and the neighborhood detail. Order several addresses and you also get a CSV comparing them.
Where does it work?
Any US address. The grade depends on the neighborhood around the address, not on the city or region it sits in, so the same comparison applies wherever you are looking.
Can it tell me whether my shop will succeed?
No. Tupll compares locations, not businesses. The grade is relative: it shows how well locations like this one tend to draw customers, compared with existing independent coffee shops in the same area type. It is not a sales forecast, and it cannot see your product, staff, rent, building, parking, or how easy it is to pull into the lot.
What does 100 mean?
A typical independent coffee shop in the same area type. Above 100, the location compares better than typical on what Tupll measures; below 100, it compares worse. Your report leads with the grade from A to F and the percentile; the Location Index is the measure underneath them.
What is an area type, and can I choose it?
There are four: Urban, Suburban, Second city, and Small town or rural. Tupll sets it from your address, and your address is ranked only against shops in the same type. It also sets the drive area in the report: 5 minutes urban, 8 suburban, 10 second city and 15 small town or rural.
What if my address gets a low grade?
Then you know before you sign. The report shows which statistics are pulling the grade down, so you can look harder at the location or compare it with other addresses.
Does the grade come with a range or a confidence level?
No. Each address gets one grade, one percentile and one Location Index, without a range. Treat small differences between addresses as ties, and use the grade first to rule out weak locations, which is where it is most reliable.
What does the Guide to Marketing to Local Customers include?
For USD 175 per address: who lives and works in your drive area, the neighborhoods to reach first with a map and a list, nearby anchors and competitors, three to five tactics picked from your area's data, and a first 90 days plan. It works at the neighborhood level and never lists individual people. Add it when you order, or after you see your grade, from the link in your delivery email.
I am comparing several addresses. How does that work?
Order them together, up to 20 in one order. One address is $139. Two to five in the same order are $119 each, and six to twenty are $103 each. You get a report for each address and a CSV that ranks them, highest Location Index first.
Where does the data come from?
Public records, census and mapping data: the census, federal employment records, road and land data, and an open map of businesses. The report names its sources and the period each one describes.
What is the guarantee?
We stand behind the data. Delivered on time or your money back. If we cannot score your address, full refund. If a fact in the report is wrong, we fix it or refund it.